Friday, January 28, 2005

The dance continues

So the question remains: will the NHL and NHLPA get a deal done or is the season already been flushed down the toilet by their little game of $2 billion chicken?

So we've had a few small group meetings again this week. And again, the NHLPA says that the talks have gone nowhere and the NHL seems a little more optimistic.

Personally, I'm hoping the NHLPA's outward pessimism is just a bluff to try and get the owners to panic and sweeten their offer. And that's for their own sake, as well as the sake of the league as a whole and most importantly the fans.

I just don't see how calling the owners' bluff and going ahead with the season being cancelled will get the NHLPA the "capless" deal that they appear to desperately want.

If the season is cancelled, then the NHL owners will not be able to accurately predict what future revenues will be. Will they remain flat? Will they drop by 20%, 50%, 75%? Nobody knows and that will further strengthen the owners' need for a hard cap.

So if the NHLPA is deathly afraid of a hard cap, then how will pushing things to the point that the season is cancelled work out for the NHLPA in the long run? The only explanation has to be that Bob Goodenow has convinced the players that the owners will cave. I mean, sitting out a year has worked for players like Ken Dryden, Nikolai Khabibulin, Michael Peca, and Alexei Yashin, right?

Sure, but to win those battles those players only needed to find one person crazy enough to give them what they wanted. In this battle they need to convince at least 2 dozen NHL owners to cave. And I just don't see any signs right now that there is that huge groundswell of sentiment amongst the owners to cave.

And since it's pretty obvious that a lot of teams are losing less money this season than they did last season, I don't see the Toronto's and the Detroit's of the world being able to convince even the moderate NHL owners to cave 4 to 6 months from now.

And even if the NHL gets their "cost certainty" in the long run, will that be worth the untold damage that will have been done to the league? Personally, I doubt that as well. Too much corporate money will leave the game if the NHL is shut down for a year or two for me to believe that the NHL will come out of this mess stronger.

Both the NHLPA and NHL leadership has become so stubborn that they appear to be on the brink of cutting of their noses to spite their faces. And that fact both saddens me and ticks me off.

At least I have the Amerks to fall back on........................

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