The battle of the fuzzy math
Bob Goodenow and the NHLPA took great offense to the NHL's projections for what would happen if the NHL accepted the NHLPA's latest offer.
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/2004/12/17/787187-sun.html
Bob called the numbers "hogwash". Ted Saskin, the NHLPA's #2 guy, suggested that if more realistic numbers were used, that the NHL would project to make money under the NHLPA's proposal.
While I believe the NHL's numbers were overly conservative, what did people expect?
This is a negotiation. And both sides always overstate things.
For example, the NHLPA is assuming that there is an 82 game 2004-05 season when they do all of their savings calculations. And everyone knows that we are well past the time where there will be a full season. Also, the NHLPA isn't taking into account the revenue that the NHL will lose thanks to the latest national TV deals in the US. The money that the league will get from NBC and ESPN are nowhere near the kind of dollars that the NHL received in their previous deal with ESPN and ABC.
And the NHL makes a great point when it talks about backlash due to the lockout.
The real wildcard is whether the owners would take the money saved by the NHLPA's offer of an across the board 24% salary rollback and put that back into the team's payroll.
Well, I believe that teams like Detroit, Toronto, and others certainly would. And those are the teams that help drive the salary inflation under the previous deal. Heck, there was one Toronto writer talking about all the budget space the cutbacks would create for the Leafs to go out and make moves.
Besides, if the NHLPA really believed their numbers, then why wouldn't they guarantee them when the NHL asked them to do so?
No matter how Goodenow huffs and puffs, nor how many Powerpoint and Excel slideshows he puts together, most people know that he's banking on the owners once again spending like drunken sailors.
That's his job.
He just doesn't like the fact that too many owners have sobered up and are trying to take the keys away from the ones that haven't yet.
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/2004/12/17/787187-sun.html
Bob called the numbers "hogwash". Ted Saskin, the NHLPA's #2 guy, suggested that if more realistic numbers were used, that the NHL would project to make money under the NHLPA's proposal.
While I believe the NHL's numbers were overly conservative, what did people expect?
This is a negotiation. And both sides always overstate things.
For example, the NHLPA is assuming that there is an 82 game 2004-05 season when they do all of their savings calculations. And everyone knows that we are well past the time where there will be a full season. Also, the NHLPA isn't taking into account the revenue that the NHL will lose thanks to the latest national TV deals in the US. The money that the league will get from NBC and ESPN are nowhere near the kind of dollars that the NHL received in their previous deal with ESPN and ABC.
And the NHL makes a great point when it talks about backlash due to the lockout.
The real wildcard is whether the owners would take the money saved by the NHLPA's offer of an across the board 24% salary rollback and put that back into the team's payroll.
Well, I believe that teams like Detroit, Toronto, and others certainly would. And those are the teams that help drive the salary inflation under the previous deal. Heck, there was one Toronto writer talking about all the budget space the cutbacks would create for the Leafs to go out and make moves.
Besides, if the NHLPA really believed their numbers, then why wouldn't they guarantee them when the NHL asked them to do so?
No matter how Goodenow huffs and puffs, nor how many Powerpoint and Excel slideshows he puts together, most people know that he's banking on the owners once again spending like drunken sailors.
That's his job.
He just doesn't like the fact that too many owners have sobered up and are trying to take the keys away from the ones that haven't yet.
posted by James W at 6:39 AM
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